How Much Is a Quantum Computer Worth? Let’s Run the Numbers.

People talk about quantum computing like it’s a magic wand.

“It will reinvent finance!”

“It will change investing, risk, pricing, trading - everything!”

Maybe. But here’s what you almost never hear:

How much is “everything” actually worth?

Are we talking about a 5% improvement? 50%? 500%?

Is it worth millions? Billions?

Or… is it mostly PowerPoint?

Let’s leave the buzzwords behind for a moment - and actually put numbers on it.

[Full transparency: I used AI tools & deep research for this one...]

The Real Use Case: Portfolio Optimization

Picture this: A pension fund managing $30 billion for millions of people.

Its job is straightforward - at least on paper:

-> Maximize returns -> Minimize risk -> Respect hundreds of real-world constraints: liquidity, regulation, sector limits, ESG, currencies, hedge ratios, tax, credit exposure…

This problem has a name: portfolio optimization.

But in real life? It looks nothing like what you studied in finance class.

Why Classical Computers Fall Short

In school, you optimize between 10 assets.

In reality, it’s 300–500 assets. And they’re not just “in or out” - each comes with multiple possible position sizes, scenarios, risk limits, regulatory thresholds, and exposures.

The number of potential portfolios?

It isn’t trillions.

It’s 2³⁰⁰ ≈ 10⁹⁰.

That’s more than the number of atoms in the observable universe.

So what do classical computers do?

They give up. (But politely.)

They:

• Simplify the math - group assets, collapse sectors, assume normal distributions

• Use heuristics — search for “good enough,” not optimal portfolios

It works — but it leaves money, safety, and opportunity on the table.

So… How Much Money?

Let’s put real numbers to it.

A $30B pension fund makes 5% a year on average.

That’s $1.5B per year.

Now imagine quantum optimization finds a portfolio that is just 0.3% better per year. Same risk. Same constraints. Just a smarter allocation.

That tiny improvement turns into:

0.3% of $30B = $90M extra value per year

Over 10 years, with compounding?

≈ $1.4 billion in extra returns.

From just a 0.3% improvement.

That’s the point:

Quantum isn’t about discovering new galaxies of return. It’s about finding a slightly better version of this one. And that slightly better version is worth real money.

Now, Let’s Talk About Risk

This is where quantum gets really interesting.

Classical models don’t truly understand extreme scenarios - the rare, ugly events that actually define financial history (think 2008, 2020, 2022).

They approximate tail risks. Quantum can compute them - natively - across thousands of interacting constraints.

Which means:

It doesn’t just help you earn more in good years. It helps you lose less in bad ones.

Example:

Worst-case crash scenario (once in 20 years):

Method	Predicted Loss
Classical	–25%
Quantum-optimized	–20%

That 5% difference?

On $30B AUM, that’s $1.5B of capital preserved - in one crisis year.

Before factoring in lower hedging costs, lower regulatory capital, better VaR, fewer margin calls, or smoother liquidity management.

Quantum doesn’t promise magic.

It promises better decisions - in the most valuable (and expensive) places where decisions are made.

That’s the real story.