How Much Is a Quantum Computer Worth? Let’s Run the Numbers.

Gal Dea
2 hours ago
3 min read

Everyone talks about quantum computing as if it’s magic: It will revolutionize finance! It will change risk, portfolios, trading, pricing, everything!

But here’s what almost no one shows you:

Where exactly is the value? Is it a 5% gain? 50%? 500%?

How much is it actually worth - in money - to a pension fund, a bank, or even to you?

So let’s do what quantum is meant to do: stop talking in buzzwords — and start calculating.

The Problem: Real-World Portfolio Optimization

Imagine a pension fund managing $30 billion for millions of savers.

Its mandate is simple ➡ Maximize return ➡ Minimize risk ➡ Meet hundreds of regulatory, liquidity, sector, ESG, and exposure constraints

In finance, this is called portfolio optimization. In practice, it looks nothing like the version you studied in school.

Why Classical Computers Struggle

In the real world, you don’t optimize between 10 assets…You optimize between 300–500 candidate assets, each with multiple possible positions, scenarios, liquidity limits, currencies, and regulatory constraints.

The number of possible portfolio combinations?

Way beyond trillions.

In fact, for 300 assets (each with only “in” or “out” decisions):

2³⁰⁰ ≈ 10⁹⁰ possible portfolios. That's more than the number of atoms in the visible universe.

Classical computers can’t explore this space, so they do two things:

They simplify the math (group assets, collapse sectors, assume normal distributions)
They use heuristics (search algorithms that find good - not optimal - portfolios)

It works. But it leaves money on the table.

How Much Money?

Let’s say the fund generates 5% average annual return with classical methods.

That’s $1.5B a year on $30B AUM.

Now - if quantum optimization helps find portfolios that are just 0.3% better per year (same risk, same constraints, just slightly better allocation)...

That’s an extra:

0.3% × $30B = $90M per year

Over 10 years, with compounding?

≈ $1.04 billion in extra returns.

From a 0.3% improvement.

Let’s be conservative:

Quantum doesn't give you a new universe of return. It gives you a better version of this one.

And that version is worth billions.

But What About Risk?

Here’s where quantum gets even more interesting.

Classical risk modeling collapses rare events (“tail risks”) into approximate models. Quantum lets you compute those tail risks natively, across thousands of interacting constraints.

In plain English:

It doesn’t just tell you the average performance. It helps you avoid the bad years.

Example:

Worst-case crash scenario (once in 20 years):

Classical allocation predicts –25% loss.

Quantum-optimized allocation predicts –20% loss

Difference: 5% of $30B = $1.5B preserved capital

In a single crisis year.

And that’s before considering lower regulatory capital, better VaR, lower hedging cost, and reduced margin calls.

So, Is Quantum Giving Us 5% or 50% or 500% Improvement?

What quantum improves	Typical gain	Real-world value on $30B
Annual return (expected)	+0.2% to +0.5%	$60M–$150M/year
Downside risk	15%–30% reduction	$1.0B–$1.5B preserved in crash
Capital efficiency (banks)	10%–25% improvement	$200M–$800M freed capital
Derivative pricing/hedging	5%–15% cost reduction	$50M–$250M/year

So — is quantum 5%, 50%, or 500% more valuable?

None of those.

Here’s the real answer:

Quantum doesn’t increase your return by 500%. It increases the value of your decisions by millions - even billions.

Because when you're managing billions, even a 0.3% edge is a billion-dollar edge.

The Big Insight

Classical computers help you make good decisions. Quantum computers help you explore every possible decision - under real conditions, with all constraints - and find the best one.

It’s not magic. It’s math.Just finally done at full resolution.

Why This Matters

Quantum doesn’t replace classical finance models.

It finishes them.

It completes what we always wanted to do but could never compute.

Evaluate millions of realistic scenarios
Search all valid portfolio configurations
Run real-time risk modeling of Black Swan events
Optimize allocation continuously, not quarterly
Price complex derivatives without approximations

Quantum isn’t about building a faster computer.

It’s about building a stronger financial reality.